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It’s been a rough stretch in the markets.

In less than two weeks, we’ve seen the Dow drop 1,600 points, then 2,200 more. The Nasdaq slipped into bear market territory. China hit back with a 34% tariff after the U.S. imposed a 54% one. The political posturing is loud—and the market’s response even louder.

But this isn’t the time to panic.
It’s the time to pay attention.

Because this moment isn’t just about markets—
It’s about chess, not checkers.

Playing the Long Game

Much of what we’re seeing now has all the markings of The Art of the Deal—Trump-style negotiation tactics: push hard, disrupt the status quo, move quickly, and keep everyone guessing.

It’s not clean. It’s not subtle. But it’s deliberate.

The tariffs? Likely a starting bid, not an endgame.
The retaliation? A predictable response, not a breakdown.
The market volatility? A side effect of a broader strategy—to reset leverage globally and restore fiscal discipline at home.

The bottom line: we don’t think these moves are permanent.
We think they’re short-term plays with long-term positioning in mind.

What the Market Is Really Reacting To

Beneath the headlines, something deeper is happening. We’re watching more than just a trade spat—we’re watching a full-on attempt to rebalance the U.S. economy.

You’ve probably heard about Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s 3-3-3 Plan:

• 3% GDP growth

• 3% federal deficit (as a % of GDP)

• 3 million more barrels of U.S. oil production per day

It’s a bold blueprint meant to send a message: we’re not here to keep spending recklessly. We’re here to stabilize and grow—on our terms.

And again, this reads more like a negotiation framework than a locked-in policy agenda. Another example of the “chess” mindset at work.

The Market Hates Uncertainty (But It Creates Opportunity)

Right now, markets are struggling to price risk—and that’s the root of what we’re seeing. When CEOs pull earnings guidance and forecasts break down, models start falling apart.

• What happens if China escalates tariffs?

• What does a post-stimulus U.S. economy actually look like?

• Is the Fed going to cut rates to smooth things out—or hold steady and let the pain work?

No one really knows. And when the market doesn’t know what to expect, it guesses.
That’s where volatility comes from.

But uncertainty is also where mispricing lives.
And that’s what I’m watching.

Rebalancing on the Horizon

For clients near retirement—or sitting on cash (or about to be from a business sale)—this is the kind of environment where portfolio decisions really matter.

We’ve been patient. We’ve been holding more cash than usual. Not because we were calling a crash—but because we knew that policy, valuations, and sentiment were all sitting at extremes.

Now? We’re starting to see those extremes break.

I’m not suggesting it’s time to rush in. But we’re closer to rebalancing now than we’ve been in a long time. Quality assets are getting cheaper. Panic is rising.
And when those two conditions overlap, history shows us what tends to follow.

For Long-Term Investors: Stay the Course

If you’re more than five years from retirement, this isn’t your signal to act—it’s your signal to stay disciplined.

Long-term wealth is built by staying in the game, especially when it’s uncomfortable.
Trying to time the bottom rarely works.
Sticking to your allocation usually does.

Final Thought: Chess, Not Checkers

This whole environment—volatile, political, emotional—can feel like a mess. But from where I sit, it’s starting to look more like a calculated sequence of moves than a meltdown.

These aren’t the kinds of policies you leave in place forever. They’re opening gambits. Leverage plays. Strategic pressure.

And if that’s true, the opportunity that comes out of this could arrive quickly—and reward the people who were prepared while others froze.

Stay patient. Stay sharp.
And don’t mistake noise for collapse.
Sometimes a little chaos is just the opening move.

Keep Compounding,

Heath Harris
Founder, Compound Advisory
Advising Growth. Compounding Trust.